John Rees-Evans

 How much would you like to contribute to Theresa's deal? 10  votes

 £1,287 1 vote
 £1,749 0 votes
 £2,970 0 votes
 What?! We should be suing the EU for £450 billion in fraudulently captured subscriptions. 9 votes
This poll has been closed.
The real size of the UK's Brexit divorce bill from the EU could significantly exceed £39 billion because the EU's spending pledges and pension costs rose by tens of billions of euros last year.

The EU's auditor described member countries annual budget fees as "moveable," the Guardian reported, because they are linked to changing commitments and liabilities.

The British government insists that the Brexit bill will be £39 billion, with payments that mostly decrease annually until 2064. But EU negotiators have never endorsed a specific figure, with one senior EU source estimating last year the figure would be £53 billion.
Business Insider

There's a serious flaw with these calculations.

If Britain agrees to pay the EU on the basis of future obligations that are indexed to the economic performance of the Superstate, what happens when our leaving contributes to the financial destruction of the EU and member states' debts start spiralling out of control?

There are 30.3 million tax payers in  Britain. At £39 billion, it would cost you £1,287 to leave the EU.

The EU Won't Admit How Much UK Leaving Will Damage Them

Even with the bravado of the EU's PR machine being factored into their projections, the EU already estimates that Theresa's £39 billion offer is more likley going to have to be £53 billion - on the basis of the terms that she has already agreed to pursue. That's an eye-watering £1,749 per UK tax payer.

But when the EU member states that have effectively learned to live off UK-funded subsidies,  start to realise they can't honour their debt obligations without the same degree of trade involvement that we were effectively coerced into by shutting out the developing world - after our membership of the EU excluded us from the WTO - and their lending gets completely out of control, don;'t be surprised if "£53 billion" starts to approach 80-90 billion.

That's nearly three thousand pounds out of your pocket, and for what?
Quote 2 1
The more I see forecasts like this the more appealing a no deal Brexit becomes,if anything the EU dictatorship should be paying the British taxpayers a massive rebate for 45 years of extortion and theft of our hard earned money for absolutely nothing in return only stupid rules,regulations and laws that have made our lives a misery.Roll on the day we're out of this rich man's club once and for all.Long live demoracy,sovereignty and freedom from the EU shackles.🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧
Quote 3 0
The way I  read the situation is, the £39billion is only a lump sum to pay for EU projects and expenses that we were already signed up to. Which the ECJ has ruled we’re liable for even if we leave. However the text in the Treaties that we’re currently signed up to state otherwise according to the ruling of our own Law Lords. So the EU would have a tough time getting that money if we dispute it.
Secondly it doesn’t include all the money we have to pay during the Transition in membership fees bills bail outs and other contributions set by Brussels without our participation or right to veto. And it also doesn’t include the additional money it’s costing us to kick the can down the road. Which is millions per day. 
So to sum it up, that £90billion is a very fair estimate and may even fall short of the final figure when we look back on this from far in the future. 
One additional point, if i may, is it should be taken into account that most of the money we are laying out to the EU for a variety of reasons, is borrowed and adds to our national debt which has been gradually increasing over the past 2 or 3 decades and now stands at around 2 Trillion Pounds. It is not money we have going spare. 
Steve Fenn
proud veteran and Believer in genuine direct democracy. 
Quote 2 0
hatton paul
when uk  leaves the eu will sustain  allott of damage 
Quote 1 0
A House of Lords Committee report concluded we do not owe any divorce settlement money so the £39 billion is not payable. And Macron is wrong to try to treat non-payment as a default. Moreover, after UK clean break WTO by or before 31 October, the EU will seek an FTA as they have a £90 billion advantage. The government can then tell them how much it will cost the EU! High time for the boot to go on the other foot. 
Quote 2 0
Anonymous post from William Jaffray
Quote 1 0
Write a reply...